Money talks during Covid19

Investments

I was lucky to exit the stock market and crypto (exited BTC at 6700 euros) before huge drop. I am not selling any of my real estate investments through the platforms. Housers secondary market is dead. EstateGuru secondary market is dead and expensive to trade. EvoEstate secondary market is active as never before, but i am holding my investments. I am checking the markets mainly sp500 and ibex35 daily and even though i do not have any positions I feel frustrated with big swings in the market. On one hand a big recession is coming. On the other hand US announces 1.5T and later 2T money printing – stimulus package. Universal Basic Income may start sooner – US government is thinking of giving 1000 USD for each citizen.

I will be coming back to stock market on March 23 making 0,3% of my net-worth investments weekly. I will be buying

BTC (Crypto – Bitcoin)

LYXIB – Spanish index

WBA – Pharmacies in USA

BOL – Ports in Africa and 3 potential spinoffs

TEF Telcom for Spain and LATAM

TEL Telcom for Nordics and SE Asia

SCHB Media company from Norway

Shorting ZOOM (Ticker: ZM)

The reason to short (buy put options) Zoom is that i do not know any person paying for paid version. Zoom gives 40 minutes free sessions and then you can just restart a new session – not a big pain to pay for. (more pain to look for your credit card in the pocket). My personal circle uses Google Meet, which comes for free if you are buying Google Suites. The competition is huge. And UX is a fragile competitive advantage that can be copied and made better in days. (example Whereby in my opinion has even better UX)

Oil

With global lockdowns the demand for oil plunged. The tankers have been filled soon and there was no place to put oil. USO ETF stopped tracking oil price. And near expiration oil futures started trading at negative 37$. (Lesson about oil futures: if you do not execute contract before expiration – you have to take real oil)

Covid-19 crisis

I am starting to write this on March 20, when corona virus pandemic is at the peak in Spain.

During first two weeks of February I am reading a lot of warning on Twitter. Some events are being cancelled in the world already. I urge my wife to stock up some basic food in case of total lockdown.

February 17th to 22d I fly to Riga (with connection in Frankfurt) to Startup Wise Guys graduation and Techchill event. Before leaving I buy 6 FFP3 mascs for my family after I notice Chinese woman in the post office sending big packs of surgical mascs to China. At the moment there are plenty of FFP2 mascs.

Lidl meat section midday of March 13

March 12th Spanish government announces that country lock-down begins on Monday – March 16th. That nigh, after an argument with my wife, I decide to not take kids to school on Friday. Friday and Saturday we go for walks with kids (skipping the playgrounds and crowded places). The news are worsening every hour. When the kids go for Friday nap, I go shopping. Some sections are already empty and people are buying a lot – i wait 30 minutes in the line. The lock-down begins 2 days earlier on Saturday night. March 18th my wife goes shopping – the shops are full of food, including toilet and hand paper.

What is the life in quarantine?

In general the life did not change much: I work and have meals at home as usual. The good things:

  • I do Yoga / Stretching daily
  • I sleep better (Oura ring average sleep and readiness over 90)
  • Have time to write and read (though i read mostly about covid)
  • Rethink my life: Set your values, goals and principals (Ray Dalio).
  • I speak to parents daily
  • I speak to friends more often – usually about Covid19 and investments.
  • 100 push-ups a day (started April 10th)

The negative things are: I workout less actively. All the day is about satisfying kids, we watch at the screens more.

New covid19 cases in Spain per day

Positive vibes

Getting back to normal

6 weeks after, we are allowed to go outside with kids.

What I have learned

How viruses spread and how do you get infected

Index funds for foreigners (non-us investors)

UPDATE. (2019) You can not buy USD Index funds in InteractiveBrokers if you are EU citizen/company. 

ERROR REPORT:

“BUY 16 CHIC ARCA @ 23.89” No Trading Permission, Customer Ineligible; Ineligibility reasons: This product is currently unavailable to
clients classified as retail clients. Note: Individual clients and entities that are not large institutions
generally are classified as retail clients. There may be other products with similar economic characteristics  that are available for you to trade.

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BillionToOne investment

I have invested in Billion To One a startup that is trying to make prenatal testing easy/cheap and safe. Even though i stopped my first ”fund” of startups, I have chosen to invest in this particular one because i believe and support their mission:

Our mission is to make prenatal diagnostics safe and affordable for all.

If there will be 1% advance in prenatal testing made and  i will lose all my investment – I will be happy with the outcome

2019 March. Raises series A

The crisis may not come any time soon

Everybody agrees that the crisis or correction will come. I can not disagree with that. My idea is that investing (dollar cost averaging) should be more beneficial (Schwab study) than waiting for the crisis to come. It may come but it may be very short and recover very fast. Technically we are in second longest bull market not affected by recession. But the bear market of 1987 was only 3 months.

1987 August 21 the highest was 335.90

1987 December 4 the lowest was 223.92 (33% fall). From that moment The bull market started again.

1989 July 21 it crossed the 335.90 again

Conclusion: timing market is not a good idea.

Prediction: no one knows if crisis will come this year or in next 10 years. And for the reason that there is huge anticipation that the crisis is near, for that reason I would bet that it might not come soon. Reason #2 is that people still remember 2008. Reason #3 People have too much cash and moderate debt (look at the insane ICOs)

I will never buy individual stocks.

After reading a dozen of articles that low cost index funds beat individual stock pickers, i was not convinced, that i can not pick individual stocks better.

I was very bullish on Rocket Internet RKET. I was buying RKET at 15-19€ and selling 19-23€.

Why i am not buying individual stocks anymore:

  1. It takes too much time to monitor the news, rumors and stock price.
  2. There is high risk with individual stocks.
  3. S&P 500 at the same time made +25% compared to mine 19%

Another great example is TV series Billions, that shows stock market manipulation by billionaires.

Warren Buffet 1M bet