My p2p investing journey began in 2015 July when i have made first investment in Bondora.
Later on I have tested 10-15 platforms. In the beginning it was consumer lending and later I have realised that they are too risky and stuck to only Real Estate platforms. Though to this day I still have positions in Mintos and Bondora.
I have stopped all auto-invest strategies leaving only EvoEstate active auto-invest setting for Skin in the Game projects.
The main reason I invest in startups if to learn something new from smarter founders and teams and apply that knowledge for my ongoing business.
The side goal is to earn money.
Even though my tickets are very small, I am very happy to be part of something. And especially during the pandemic of Covid-19 I had 3 startups in my portfolio which were helping to fight this public enemy.
HelloWisp – Was selling Covid19 antibody testing.
BillionToOne – scaled Covid19 testing to 1 million per day.
Molekule – released a unit for medical environments
I was lucky to exit the stock market and crypto (exited BTC at 6700 euros) before huge drop. I am not selling any of my real estate investments through the platforms. Housers secondary market is dead. EstateGuru secondary market is dead and expensive to trade. EvoEstate secondary market is active as never before, but i am holding my investments. I am checking the markets mainly sp500 and ibex35 daily and even though i do not have any positions I feel frustrated with big swings in the market. On one hand a big recession is coming. On the other hand US announces 1.5T and later 2T money printing – stimulus package. Universal Basic Income may start sooner – US government is thinking of giving 1000 USD for each citizen.
I will be coming back to stock market on March 23 making 0,3% of my net-worth investments weekly. I will be buying
BTC (Crypto – Bitcoin)
LYXIB – Spanish index
WBA – Pharmacies in USA
BOL – Ports in Africa and 3 potential spinoffs
TEF Telcom for Spain and LATAM
TEL Telcom for Nordics and SE Asia
SCHB Media company from Norway
The U.S. shouldn’t bail out billionaires and hedge funds during the coronavirus pandemic, Social Capital CEO Chamath Palihapitiya says. “Who cares? Let them get wiped out.” https://t.co/dIbizumtqG pic.twitter.com/u8BSVvr0B1— CNBC (@CNBC) April 9, 2020
Shorting ZOOM (Ticker: ZM)
Zoom vs Google Meet is the difference of a singular company and product focus vs just thinking you are building a feature as part of an enterprise suite. https://t.co/ofTcCVmk41— Josh Elman (@joshelman) April 25, 2020
The reason to short (buy put options) Zoom is that i do not know any person paying for paid version. Zoom gives 40 minutes free sessions and then you can just restart a new session – not a big pain to pay for. (more pain to look for your credit card in the pocket). My personal circle uses Google Meet, which comes for free if you are buying Google Suites. The competition is huge. And UX is a fragile competitive advantage that can be copied and made better in days. (example Whereby in my opinion has even better UX)
With global lockdowns the demand for oil plunged. The tankers have been filled soon and there was no place to put oil. USO ETF stopped tracking oil price. And near expiration oil futures started trading at negative 37$. (Lesson about oil futures: if you do not execute contract before expiration – you have to take real oil)
I am starting to write this on March 20, when corona virus pandemic is at the peak in Spain.
During first two weeks of February I am reading a lot of warning on Twitter. Some events are being cancelled in the world already. I urge my wife to stock up some basic food in case of total lockdown.
February 17th to 22d I fly to Riga (with connection in Frankfurt) to Startup Wise Guys graduation and Techchill event. Before leaving I buy 6 FFP3 mascs for my family after I notice Chinese woman in the post office sending big packs of surgical mascs to China. At the moment there are plenty of FFP2 mascs.
March 12th Spanish government announces that country lock-down begins on Monday – March 16th. That nigh, after an argument with my wife, I decide to not take kids to school on Friday. Friday and Saturday we go for walks with kids (skipping the playgrounds and crowded places). The news are worsening every hour. When the kids go for Friday nap, I go shopping. Some sections are already empty and people are buying a lot – i wait 30 minutes in the line. The lock-down begins 2 days earlier on Saturday night. March 18th my wife goes shopping – the shops are full of food, including toilet and hand paper.
What is the life in quarantine?
In general the life did not change much: I work and have meals at home as usual. The good things:
- I do Yoga / Stretching daily
- I sleep better (Oura ring average sleep and readiness over 90)
- Have time to write and read (though i read mostly about covid)
- Rethink my life: Set your values, goals and principals (Ray Dalio).
- I speak to parents daily
- I speak to friends more often – usually about Covid19 and investments.
- 100 push-ups a day (started April 10th)
The negative things are: I workout less actively. All the day is about satisfying kids, we watch at the screens more.
Number of days sheltering in place: 21— Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath) April 6, 2020
Number of hours at home per day: 23
Number of books read: STILL ZERO!!
Getting back to normal
6 weeks after, we are allowed to go outside with kids.
What I have learned
I have already had few defaults on EstateGuru and with this post I want to share how the defaults happen and what you can expect. (i have previously shared how Housers manage defaults) The image is my current portfolio stats with the defaults. I have stopped investing in EstateGuru some 6 months ago, as I am currently putting all my Real Estate investments into EvoEstate.
To this date EstateGuru claims they have not lost any principal for the investor. With the rising Real Estate market that was quite easy to sell the defaulted properties for greater value. It is not clear how much does the recuperation of defaulted loans cost for investors. So I give my personal examples:
Tiskre residences development loan II. 12 month loan with LTV 57% and expected 10,5% annual interest. I got €89.79 which comes to 8,98% total return in 820 days and annual REAL return less than 4%
I have other 8 loans that defaulted – on the contrary all those 8 have returned bigger return than expected. (That happens because if the borrower is late – he starts being charged 18% annual interest rate.)
How long does it take to recover defaulted loan?
In my experience usually it is about 1 year, but i have properties that take longer. The thing why this happens in my opinion is that EstateGuru does not want to lose investors principal, so they do not lower the auction start price enough.
The last auction failed due to lack of interested buyers. The new auction will be announced soon with same price.
Inspired by my business partner decided to read more in 2020 and to check how many books I read per year.
Here I will publish my reading list
- 1984 – George Orwell
- What it takes – Schwartzman
- Billion dollar whale
- Quite – study of introverts
- Man who solved the market
- LifeSpan: Why we age and why we don’t have to – David Sinclair
- Solve for Happy – Mo Gawdat
Now I have new experience – default. Defaults are usual in lending industry. The risks and how they are managed – that is what is interesting in this case: MARISMAS DE ODIEL
535k loan was taken with 11,5% yearly interest rate for period of 6 months on July of 2018. 3,5k of interest was paid.
The interesting part is that Housers asked every investor to vote what to do next.
I like the idea that everybody is allowed to control their fate, but on the other hand, Housers, with 80+ of staff could prepare some analysis and give their opinion on what is better to do.
Another interesting about this Spanish default is that Housers outsource recovery of money for a hefty 12% + VAT fee. (additionaly Housers pays 1.5% from their pocket)
So investors in this project had two options:
- A. prolong interest (with lower interest rate!!!)
- B. give for management company the right to recover the debt.
Customer support is terrible. 3 emails sent. No reply. Phone call 3 minutes hold – no answer = promise to call me back.
p.s. Housers earned 8.5% on raising this loan.
MEDITERRANEAN HILLS. Project was funded 2018 July 18th for 12 month loan with 8,5% interest. 2020 April 24 the project still does not have a building license. Same situation is with Bond Hills where same developer NOK (run by GARRIGOS ZAMBUDIO ANA BELEN) did not get the license in 2 years to start construction.
BELLEVUE GREEN 2020 April 1st – 2 month notification is given to present new schedule. June 6th nothing happens
HONLY HOTEL. Property funded December 12, 2018 for 12 month loan. It paid interest for 4 months. No more communication from Housers side.
The biggest update of my P2P portfolio is that i am reducing allocations in platforms, as I have started EvoEstate.com – Real Estate only, European p2p aggregator. I am moving my own funds to the company, where I will have greater platform diversification and thus minimise risk and have less paperwork.Continue reading
City of contrasts and diversity.
|Business and education vibe||Heat and humidity|
|City amenities at great price||Traffic|
|Great destinations within 6 hour flights||non pedestrian friendly|