P2P portfolio update: 2017.10 – 2018.04

Previous update here

EstateGuru. I have increased my allocation to 7.5% of my net worth in this platform. Turned off the auto-invest and doing investment manually. I have contacted support for improving the service with more abilities to filter the auto-invest settings, but they refused to do that. I see the biggest risk in projects, where collateral is Land (I rarely invest manually to Land collateral) or some risky projects such as:

 €1.000.000 house 30 minute drive from Tallinn. I am pretty sure that if this house was offered 50% discount from current valuation it would take months to sell it.

All the projects in Curonian Spit are extremely sensitive. The biggest risk with such projects is Government. The numbers might be right, but if they do not get a permit (which by law they technically should get in X amount of time) the numbers fall apart.

EstateGuru is the first P2P lending company I recommend to my friends

Bondora. Doing nothing with the account. Auto-invest is turned off. Waiting for more results from #strategy3. After 15 months from the start of this experiment I am approaching 50% mark of defaults. I know that 60% default rate would still bring me good return, but i have a feeling that i will have 70-80% of default from strategy3. The good thing that i put only 0,5% of my networth into this strategy testing, and still with the 75% default rate i think i would not lose the money.

Mintos. I have increased my allocation in this platform to 2.5% of net worth. I converted to all the possible currencies and split the risk between different platforms, currencies. Majority of operators i took those who offer collateral. The bad thing i did i exchanged too many DKK and 80% of this currency sits idle, and none of investments available in both primary and secondary market.

Twino. My lowest allocation.



Housers. They are pushing good ads. I liked especially the one that they claim that real returns are greater than expected. Still they do not convince me

Why I do not like them in short: (longer review here)
1. not clear about the collaterals. Especially on different types of loans.
2. no auto-invest
Maybe later on they will be my next P2P allocation to specific projects where the collateral is clear and understandable. Currently i understand only For buy-to-let and buy-to-sell projects.
USA p2p: PeerStreet, RealtyMogul.
I am thinking  of opening account there. I think it would be a good hedge country and currency wise, especially now when €/$ is @ 1,23. The thing that is stopping me that i have to incorporate in USA (±400$) and hire accountant (500$). So if I invest 50k$ that is 2% fee for first year and 1% fee for next one. Also I have read in many blogs and comments that Auto-invest is also crazy there where majority of projects goes to California.

selling bad loans on Bondora secondary market

Last week i have posted all of my defaulted loans on secondary market with a 50% discount. None of them moved out for few days. So i raised the discount to 75% and 78 loans were sold. 85% of them were estonian loans. Only 3 HR Spanish loans.
177 defaulted loans left with total principal of 7404€. My profit in the dashboard is 2845€ with net return 10.55%, by my historical portfolio 8.24% and total portfolio 5.3%.

strategy #3.  total default 24 loans. Total purchased 242.

Full Bondora review

p.s. I do not recommend Bondora for safe, automatic, high return investment. If you do register, please use my referral link

Bondora P2P review

The purpose of this post is to understand weather P2P lending in Bondora is good or not.

I have invested 17.000 euros in this ”asset” and even though, Bondora shows 17.56% ROI for me at the moment which is great, i can’t tell if this investment is good or no. Each month i will share results


What worries me is defaults. Current total defaults is 2,254.78€  on 2016 March 7th and it constantly exceeds the profit made.

Basically if i will get 50% of the defaulted investments, i will be in a loss. I will keep updating this page so we will see the progress in Profit vs Defaults.

Also i have found one analytical article on Bondora


Datestated XIRRexpected returnPrincipal overdueDefaultedProfitWithdrawals
March 16, 201619.0814.24 - 14.61210913961070
April 1519.6014.07 - 15.80263514891329
May 15 20.4814.20 - 15.74405220251676
June 1520.5914.33 - 15.69309726951981
July 1620.4814.46 - 16.11338927042267
Aug 1520.5614.53 - 16.52383336312585
Sep 1520.2414.46 - 16.17453038412873298
Oct 1520.2214.41 - 16.91394741843122300
Dec 1918.7912.27 - 16.16538655843485550
Jan 1518.3711.87 - 15.496588637235740
total withdrawn2248

May 15th My newest strategy doesn’t give me many loans to invest in. And the very few i get are oversubscribed. Therefor May 15th there are 446 Euros in unused funds

September 15th.

having 20k on account and 20% IRR, theoretically i could take 300+ euros a month, which i started doing.

October 15th (Saturday). First thing i withdraw 300 again, but the interesting thing there are no loans on the market to be funded. Only auto-invest programs can do that. And the rules, unless you use API, to set are very limited. (Compared to Mintos).

December 19th. I have missed the November month. The defaults are still growing massively: they grow more than the profit.

17k deposited. Outstanding principal is 19k out of which 5.5k is defaulted. If i sold non-defaulted loans at their purchase price, I would be at a loss, though my return at the dashboard says 15%+ return.

  • the auto invest program sucks. I stopped using it because sometimes when i see AB rating loans defautled, i check them – it is very obvious that they had too good rating – where with my experience i would have marked them as HR.
  • one interesting notice: all my current defaults, defaulted on first payment. I do not have any defaulted contracts with second payment.

My defaulted contracts by the purchase date. Hopefully these are the last 🙂

December 22d. By my calculations, and theory that defaults are on first payment, i can say that i have reached (hopefully) that total defaults are 5764€. If my profits at this moment are 3.5k so i should break-even in 5 months from now, and in total it comes 7 months after i stopped investing and starting cashing out. If this happens after 5 months, it means that from then on i will start receiving profit and Bondora is good as a passive investment form. Even if it doesn’t earn double digit rate or return I will have a percentage of my portfolio at Bondora.

What is the Return on Spanish loans?

assume Spanish loans give 50% interest and 50% of spanish loans default to 0.

so if we have 10 loans for 100€. Total investment is 1000€, with 50% default our loss is 500€. Remaining 5 loans of 500€ in 5 years will generate 868€ + 500€ of principal = 1368€, so total 36,8% during 5 years comes to 6% annual return.

Personal Update 1 (December 27th) from my 75 Spanish loans, 33 have defaulted (44%) and average interest rate is 56% so my expected return on Spanish loans is greater than 10.2% which i think is ok. (44% defaul: 560€ principal on 1000€ investment generates 1068€ in 5 years of interest. total invested 1000, total received in 5 years 1628€. Also this calculation has upside of loan recovery). 7 loans with interest rate 72-76% has no defaults. 7 loans with interest rate 60-64% has 2 defaults, 7 highest interest 72-80% rate loans have 2 defaults as well. If i could reduce the default rate the returns could be drastically bigger

I can say that my manual picks of loans were better, because the defaults are lower than average for that country and the only way i can keep having same is start using the API.

Strategy #3

Hand pick Spanish loans in secondary market, that are i

  • in at least second payment
  • interest rate 50%+
  • XIRR 50% +

These are my picks:

I believe i should have none defaults in this group, therefor i could achieve 50-100% yearly returns. I will keep updated on this strategy and if it works – i will need to develop the API, so i don’t have to do that manually.

January 15th

I was shocked to see my defaults increased even though i was not expecting anymore at the end of December, but i have missed something back then. What i am happy about is that my spanish loans with #strategy3 are not overdue or defaulted. I have another 375€ and i will invest them in same strategy:

January 21st

total defaulted loans 6692€

bought another 21 loans on same #strategy3.

from first batch of this strategy none of the loans defaulted

March 16

Total defaults 7235€.

First defaulted loan from #strategy3 with only 10€ of principal. Skip this month investing and will do it in April.

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