defaults on Housers

I have been investing in Housers for more than a year now. My experience with Housers was negative at the beginning and then I have changed my mind and re-ranked it.

Now I have new experience – default. Defaults are usual in lending industry. The risks and how they are managed – that is what is interesting in this case: MARISMAS DE ODIEL

535k loan was taken with 11,5% yearly interest rate for period of 6 months on July of 2018. 3,5k of interest was paid.

The interesting part is that Housers asked every investor to vote what to do next.

Voting interface. I have chosen to prolong the contract

I like the idea that everybody is allowed to control their fate, but on the other hand, Housers, with 80+ of staff could prepare some analysis and give their opinion on what is better to do.

Another interesting about this Spanish default is that Housers outsource recovery of money for a hefty 12% + VAT fee. (additionaly Housers pays 1.5% from their pocket)

So investors in this project had two options:

  • A. prolong interest (with lower interest rate!!!)
  • B. give for management company the right to recover the debt.

Customer support is terrible. 3 emails sent. No reply. Phone call 3 minutes hold – no answer = promise to call me back.

p.s. Housers earned 8.5% on raising this loan.

MEDITERRANEAN HILLS. Project was funded 2018 July 18th for 12 month loan with 8,5% interest. 2020 April 24 the project still does not have a building license. Same situation is with Bond Hills where same developer NOK (run by GARRIGOS ZAMBUDIO ANA BELEN) did not get the license in 2 years to start construction.

BELLEVUE GREEN 2020 April 1st – 2 month notification is given to present new schedule. June 6th nothing happens

HONLY HOTEL. Property funded December 12, 2018 for 12 month loan. It paid interest for 4 months. No more communication from Housers side.

Drivy. Renting a car on carsharing

All the car rental companies I have used, and I have used 10s of different ones, try to rip off clients. My latest 15 day rent cost me 90€ and I got 3k km. Ford Focus. Even though I checked that I take from one airport and return in another train station I was additionally charged 50€ one way car relocation and 9€ airport fees at the counter. Still good price 140€ for 15 day rental. Also I was offered full insurance, which I did not take, for a whooping 20% of maximum franchise cost – it is worth buying it if I have an accident more than every fifth time during my rental. I believe that upselling the insurance, is the profit margins of insurance companies as many of users do not do the math or don’t have 1.5k at the checkin. When I wanted to extend my rental agreement for 7 days I was offered 290€, that is how I found the Drivy – aka airbnb for cars. The experience was awesome. First I have tested the hybrid car that I wanted to test and second the company is transparent in rental/insurance and that makes them great – no feeling of being ripped off.

Drivy open – is the third thing i like about this company – start renting the car without interaction to a person.

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Coming back to crypto

I am coming back to crypto. Dollar cost averaging only BTC. AVG price 3500€. Will hold for very long. First bitcoin will sell at 50k $, second at 250k $ and the third will pay for my kids education.

My main conviction for BTC is that is better store of value than gold, and with my generation the ratio of gold/btc will change in the favor of later.

Index funds for foreigners (non-us investors)

UPDATE. (2019) You can not buy USD Index funds in InteractiveBrokers if you are EU citizen/company. 

ERROR REPORT:

“BUY 16 CHIC ARCA @ 23.89” No Trading Permission, Customer Ineligible; Ineligibility reasons: This product is currently unavailable to
clients classified as retail clients. Note: Individual clients and entities that are not large institutions
generally are classified as retail clients. There may be other products with similar economic characteristics  that are available for you to trade.

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P2P portfolio update: 2017.10 – 2018.04

Previous update here

EstateGuru. I have increased my allocation to 7.5% of my net worth in this platform. Turned off the auto-invest and doing investment manually. I have contacted support for improving the service with more abilities to filter the auto-invest settings, but they refused to do that. I see the biggest risk in projects, where collateral is Land (I rarely invest manually to Land collateral) or some risky projects such as:

 €1.000.000 house 30 minute drive from Tallinn. I am pretty sure that if this house was offered 50% discount from current valuation it would take months to sell it.

All the projects in Curonian Spit are extremely sensitive. The biggest risk with such projects is Government. The numbers might be right, but if they do not get a permit (which by law they technically should get in X amount of time) the numbers fall apart.

EstateGuru is the first P2P lending company I recommend to my friends

Bondora. Doing nothing with the account. Auto-invest is turned off. Waiting for more results from #strategy3. After 15 months from the start of this experiment I am approaching 50% mark of defaults. I know that 60% default rate would still bring me good return, but i have a feeling that i will have 70-80% of default from strategy3. The good thing that i put only 0,5% of my networth into this strategy testing, and still with the 75% default rate i think i would not lose the money.

Mintos. I have increased my allocation in this platform to 2.5% of net worth. I converted to all the possible currencies and split the risk between different platforms, currencies. Majority of operators i took those who offer collateral. The bad thing i did i exchanged too many DKK and 80% of this currency sits idle, and none of investments available in both primary and secondary market.

Twino. My lowest allocation.

 

 

Housers. They are pushing good ads. I liked especially the one that they claim that real returns are greater than expected. Still they do not convince me

Why I do not like them in short: (longer review here)
1. not clear about the collaterals. Especially on different types of loans.
2. no auto-invest
Maybe later on they will be my next P2P allocation to specific projects where the collateral is clear and understandable. Currently i understand only For buy-to-let and buy-to-sell projects.
USA p2p: PeerStreet, RealtyMogul.
I am thinking  of opening account there. I think it would be a good hedge country and currency wise, especially now when €/$ is @ 1,23. The thing that is stopping me that i have to incorporate in USA (±400$) and hire accountant (500$). So if I invest 50k$ that is 2% fee for first year and 1% fee for next one. Also I have read in many blogs and comments that Auto-invest is also crazy there where majority of projects goes to California.

Crypto arbitrage

Lots of my friends ask me if I am in crypto. What do they usually mean, when they ask this ‘if i am trading cryptocurrencies’. And the answer is no and i do not recommend doing this to any of my friends.

I did cryptocurrency buy/sell in a period of 20 days and doubled my money, but I saw this is too dumb/risky for me. Then i noticed that the prices for cryptos differ in exchanges. For example it was very common that BTC was 10% more expensive in South Korea than in USA. At some point it was even 43% arbitrage. Continue reading

1 year with Bondora Strategy #3

I have started investing in Bondora in August of 2015 and noticed that loans that default, usually default on first payment. Therefor I came up with strategy #3: invest in HR (high risk) loans, with interest rate 50%+

After almost 12 months, i have following results:

Total loans  523 (473 not repaid yet) loans purchased, with 5483 of principal and 73% interest rate.

Defaulted 109 loans, with principal of 1388€ and interest rate of 75%

So it comes that only 25% of loans defaulted during first year with average interest rate of 74%.

On one hand it seems it should make extremely good returns, but on the other hand the current cash flows does not add up. If i count the cashflows in a simple diminishing way and multiply it by 5 years, the total amount returned will not generate return an might have negative return.

p.s. how do i chek what return i have made on repaid loans ? (523-473=50 repaid loans)

I do not find an answer if my strategy is good or bad.  I even tried manual XIRR calculation suggested by P2P-Banking for all of my portfolio, and I got following results: